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One if by land, two if by Internet. Machine learning also has a growing role on the battlefield. Learners can help dissipate the fog of war, sifting through reconnaissance imagery, processing after-action reports, and piecing together a picture of the situation for the commander. Learning powers the brains of military robots, helping them keep their bearings, adapt to the terrain, distinguish enemy vehicles from civilian ones, and home in on their targets. DARPA’s AlphaDog carries soldiers’ gear for them. Drones can fly autonomously with the help of learning algorithms; although they are still partly controlled by human pilots, the trend is for one pilot to oversee larger and larger swarms. In the army of the future, learners will greatly outnumber soldiers, saving countless lives.. Evolution is the ultimate example of how much a simple learning algorithm can achieve given enough data. Its input is the experience and fate of all living creatures that ever existed. (Nowthat’s big data.) On the other hand, it’s been running for over three billion years on the most powerful computer on Earth: Earth itself. A computer version of it had better be faster and less data intensive than the original. Which one is the better model for the Master Algorithm: evolution or the brain? This is machine learning’s version of the nature versus nurture debate. And, just as nature and nurture combine to produce us, perhaps the true Master Algorithm contains elements of both.. These benefits apply in both our personal and professional lives. How do I make the best of the trail of data that my every step in the modern world leaves? Every transaction works on two levels: what it accomplishes for you and what it teaches the system you just interacted with. Being aware of this is the first step to a happy life in the twenty-first century. Teach the learners, and they will serve you; but first you need to understand them. What in my job can be done by a learning algorithm, what can’t, and-most important-how can I take advantage of machine learning to do it better? The computer is your tool, not your adversary. Armed with machine learning, a manager becomes a supermanager, a scientist a superscientist, an engineer a superengineer. The future belongs to those who understand at a very deep level how to combine their unique expertise with what algorithms do best.. Therefore…?…. Backprop’s applications are now too many to count. As its fame has grown, more of its history has come to light. It turns out that, as is often the case in science, backprop was invented more than once. Yann LeCun in France and others hit on it at around the same time as Rumelhart. A paper on backprop was rejected by the leading AI conference in the early 1980s because, according to the reviewers, Minsky and Papert had already proved that perceptrons don’t work. In fact, Rumelhart is credited with inventing backprop by the Columbus test: Columbus was not the first person to discover America, but the last. It turns out that Paul Werbos, a graduate student at Harvard, had proposed a similar algorithm in his PhD thesis in 1974. And in a supreme irony, Arthur Bryson and Yu-Chi Ho, two control theorists, had done the same even earlier: in 1969, the same year that Minsky and Papert publishedPerceptrons! Indeed, the history of machine learning itself shows why we need learning algorithms. If algorithms that automatically find related papers in the scientific literature had existed in 1969, they could have potentially helped avoid decades of wasted time and accelerated who knows what discoveries.. This is an instance of a tension that runs throughout much of science and philosophy: the split between descriptive and normative theories, between“this is how it is” and “this is how it should be.” Symbolists and Bayesians like to point out, however, that figuring out how we should learn can also help us to understand how we do learn because the two are presumably not entirely unrelated-far from it. In particular, behaviors that are important for survival and have had a long time to evolve should not be far from optimal. We’re not very good at answering written questions about probabilities, but we are very good at instantly choosing hand and arm movements to hit a target. Many psychologists have used symbolist or Bayesian models to explain aspects of human behavior. Symbolists dominated the first few decades of cognitive psychology. In the 1980s and 1990s, connectionists held sway, but now Bayesians are on the rise.. [Картинка: pic_22.jpg]. With nearest-neighbor, each data point is its own little classifier, predicting the class for all the query examples it wins. Nearest-neighbor is like an army of ants, in which each soldier by itself does little, but together they can move mountains. If an ant’s load is too heavy, it can share it with its neighbors. In the same spirit, in thek-nearest-neighbor algorithm, a test example is classified by finding itsk nearest neighbors and letting them vote. If the nearest image to the new upload is a face but the next two nearest ones aren’t, three-nearest-neighbor decides that the new upload is not a face after all. Nearest-neighbor is prone to overfitting: if we have the wrong class for a data point, it spreads to its entire metro area.K-nearest-neighbor is more robust because it only goes wrong if a majority of thek nearest neighbors is noisy. The price, of course, is that its vision is blurrier: fine details of the frontier get washed away by the voting. Whenk goes up, variance decreases, but bias increases.. Analogizers’ neatest trick, however, is learning across problem domains. Humans do it all the time: an executive can move from, say, a media company to a consumer-products one without starting from scratch because many of the same management skills still apply. Wall Street hires lots of physicists because physical and financial problems, although superficially very different, often have a similar mathematical structure. Yet all the learners we’ve seen so far would fall flat if we, say, trained them to predict Brownian motion and then asked them to predict the stock market. Stock prices and the velocities of particles suspended in a fluid are just different variables, so the learner wouldn’t even know where to start. But analogizers can do this using structure mapping, an algorithm invented by Dedre Gentner, a psychologist at Northwestern University. Structure mapping takes two descriptions, finds a coherent correspondence between some of their parts and relations, and then, based on that correspondence, transfers further properties from one structure to the other. For example, if the structures are the solar system and the atom, we can map planets to electrons and the sun to the nucleus and conclude, as Bohr did, that electrons revolve around the nucleus. The truth is more subtle, of course, and we often need to refine analogies after we make them. But being able to learn from a single example like this is surely a key attribute of a universal learner. When we’re confronted with a new type of cancer-and that happens all the time because cancers keep mutating-the models we’ve learned for previous ones don’t apply. Neither do we have time to gather data on the new cancer from a lot of patients; there may be only one, and she urgently needs a cure. Our best hope is then to compare the new cancer with known ones and try to find one whose behavior is similar enough that some of the same lines of attack will work.. Instead, imagine for a moment that we’re going to develop the Bay Area from scratch. We’ve decided where each city will be located, and our budget allows us to build a single road connecting them. Naturally, we lay down a road that goes from San Francisco to San Bruno, from there to San Mateo, and so on all the way to Oakland. This road is a pretty good one-dimensional representation of the Bay Area and can be found by a simple algorithm: build a road between each pair of nearby cities. Of course, in general this will result in a network of roads, not a single road running by every city. But we can force the latter by building the single road that best approximates the network, in the sense that the distances between cities along this road are as close as possible to the distances along the network.. You rack your brains for a solution, but the more you try, the harder it gets. Perhaps unifying logic and probability is just beyond human ability. Exhausted, you fall asleep. A deep growl jolts you awake. The hydra-headed complexity monster pounces on you, jaws snapping, but you duck at the last moment. Slashing desperately at the monster with the sword of learning, the only one that can slay it, you finally succeed in cutting off all its heads. Before it can grow new ones, you run up the stairs.. In the Land of Learning where the Data lies.. This does not mean that there is nothing to worry about, however. The first big worry, as with any technology, is that AI could fall into the wrong hands. If a criminal or prankster programs an AI to take over the world, we’d better have an AI police capable of catching it and erasing it before it gets too far. The best insurance policy against vast AIs gone amok is vaster AIs keeping the peace.. The need for weighting the word probabilities in speech recognition is discussed in Section 9.6 ofSpeech and Language Processing,* by Dan Jurafsky and James Martin (2nd ed., Prentice Hall, 2009). My paper on Naïve Bayes, with Mike Pazzani, is “On the optimality of the simple Bayesian classifier under zero-one loss”* (Machine Learning, 1997; expanded journal version of the 1996 conference paper). Judea Pearl’s book,* mentioned above, discusses Markov networks along with Bayesian networks. Markov networks in computer vision are the subject ofMarkov Random Fields for Vision and Image Processing,* edited by Andrew Blake, Pushmeet Kohli, and Carsten Rother (MIT Press, 2011). Markov networks that maximize conditional likelihood were introduced in“Conditional random fields: Probabilistic models for segmenting and labeling sequence data,”* by John Lafferty, Andrew McCallum, and Fernando Pereira (International Conference on Machine Learning, 2001)..